Electric Vehicles predicted as common within 20 years

By Matt Brogan | December 02nd, 2009

Advancements in technology is quickly improving and the idea that all cars will be electric in the near future doesn’t seem as outrageous as it might have a few years ago.

Warren Buffet, a billionaire investor made headlines recently when he made predictions about electric vehicles, believing that all new cars will be electric within 20 years.

Being the second richest man in the world means he can put money where his mouth is. He has invested $230 million USD in BYD, a chinese battery maker that is now focusing on electric vehicles.

It is still a few years off before we will know if Buffet’s prediction is realistic but the auto industry all seem to have some sort of electric vehicle on the drawing board. Buffet’s prediction could be a little conservative.

In 20 years a car can have three generation changes, the all new BMW 7-series is in its fifth generation and in 20 years the seventh generation will be ending production with the eighth generation to be released.

The Tesla Model S will enter production in two years and is already a great car, eight more years of battery advancement and technological development should be enough for most manufacturers to get on the electric vehicle bandwagon.

So 20 years may be on the more conservative predictions but it certainly looks like it is a very realistic prediction.

DipStiK

As long as electricity is not generated by coal in 20 years time, I am all for it. At the moment when you see electric car you should see “Coal powered car”
http://BMW schuss

Still this “coal powered car” uses about 20% +- of the energy that an equivalent petrol car does. So even if its coming from coal, the environment is much better off. Just remember how poor the efficiency of an ICE is.

This will all be revolutionised when silicon based batteries take off. But with current technology i don’t see much point of an electric car.

DGS

When driving in Perth, seeing the electric trains tear past at 110km/hr I use to think the very same thought: “Coal Powered Train”. It is important to realise that while coal is dirty, the percentage of energy converted into power in its burning in a modern power station is far greater than the conversion of Hydrocarbons to power in an Internal Combustion Engine.

In the next 10 to 15 years most electric cars will be coal powered, but if the voters of this country demand clean / renewable energy to power the grid we might be able to out shout lobbyist and see R&D into new power sources and hopefully within 10 to 15 years, renewable powerplants coming online to reduce the requirement for the burning of coal. ICE cars will still have a big place in this country, but if the the second car in every house hold was electric there would be saving in not only CO2 emission, but in the importation of Oil (balance of payments).

Skep

Good point DGS with the second car saving imported oil & supplementing the ICE but why the hell doesn’t anyone mention natural gas as the most blindingly obvious fuel for the future whilst the propellor heads sort out a decent battery?

Once we start using plug-ins for daily transport the game will be up methinks. Ever noticed how your brand new mobile stays charged for the best part of a week and about a year later you have to plug it in every day? Hybrids cover this problem up neatly and automatically by firing up the fossil fuel device.

Has anyone considered how bad the electric cars are going to be for the environment?
Everyone gets home from work and whacks the plug in a 25 amp outlet. They cant do it on a timer for off-peak because you need all night to fill the toxic heavy metal suitcase (battery) with electrons. this is going to be a bigger disaster than air-conditioning for the family home that has caused a boom in coal sales worldwide because of this massive increase in demand on the power grid and billions of dollars of extra plant (probably coal fired or mega expensive nuclear). Never mind that the hybrids/plug-ins are power hungry to produce and expensive to buy – but for the same reason that Hondas, BMWs etc plummet in resale value because of expensive maintenance, the electric cars are a major long term liability due to battery replacement. Yes sir/madam your 90K service will be $600 + $12000 for a new battery + another $600 for envronmental disposal of that poisonous time bomb.

This is called Consumption which is why the planet wants to kill us- apparently.

Fabulous, the government can address this with massive taxes to subsidize our desire for blinking lights, power xbox meters and silent take off whist we ignore a clean efficient fuel that with today’s technology can do everything we need for THREE HUNDRED FKN YEARS whilst the boffins come up with a silicon/vanadium/poly whatever battery or cold fusion.

My dad used to say Wake up Australia

Always feel better after a mid-week rant

Andrew M

I totally agree, you beat me to it by a couple of minutes.

I reckon Gas is an underated option too, dont get me started on the lack of uptake on that or ill be here all night

Shak

I whole heartedly agree with you, but one thing that will be the end of Natural gas is the lack of popularity and uptake. Many misinformed people now believe that Hybrids will save the world and are stuck in that mindset. Once Australia wakes up and realise’s that we ignore Gas at our own peril, electric would be the most viable measure.

Minnow

Dont forget to mention the rare metals used for the magnets in the high power electric motors and the batteries. There is already shortages occuring for cobalt, lithium, niobium, platinum, titanium. In fact China is planning for a total ban on exports of terbium, dysprosium, yttrium, thulium, and lutetium and a restriction on neodymium, europium, cerium, and lanthanum. At the moment there is a limit to 35,000 tons a year as China is struggling to meet their own consumption needs.

Andrew M

Ok, so using coal power electric puts out only 20% of the “bad stuff” compared to an ICE.

What fuel type are you talking about???
What size of vehicle???

I know 20% may be only a ball park figure, but dont forget ICE’s have made big gains in the efficienct stakes over the last 5 years alone.
But before you jump down my throat, im not doubting coal will still be more efficient.

The other thing I have not seen figures for is electrical consumption of EV’s.
I we really arent comparing apples with apples unless we can say EV “A” consumes “X” KW per 100ks

We need a KWH rating on EV’s before we can even start to compare them in terms of cost or true environmental impact.
Comparing 1 kg of fuel with 1kg of coal and rating energy from there doesnt really cut it in my book

Andrew M

Oh, and I also question the cost of going electric.
Electricity prices are sky rocketing.
What is it going to cost to travel 100k’s in an electric vehicle in 5 years time let alone when extra strain is placed on the grid.
not only will the extra strain make charging an EV more expensive, but that strain will also mean our household bills cop the penalty too

ABMPSV

Solution solar roof. Recharge your car with solar panels on your roof. We still well behind Germany and Switzerland in solar panels and solar roof. Over there they going crazy!! ……Denmark is by far the world leader in producing wind energy: 20% of its electricity comes from wind. Spain gets 13% of its power from wind; Germany, 7.5%; the U.S., just 1.3% — and Canada, only 1%…..

Andrew M

Solar panels are expensive, they dont last forever, and whats the environmental impact on their disposal???

Everything has its pros and cons, but I think Gas has the better balance

Shak

People have become so reliant on Fossil fuels that we instantly doubt any other type of energy and thus the big companies see them as unpopular and stop R&D
http://BMW schuss

When considering green energy people will always say, “oh but come much energy goes into producing solar panels or wind turbines or batteries?” but no one asks how much energy goes into mining coal/oil and transporting it.

We can work out how much an electric car uses by the capacity of the battery and the range that it gets from it. Do the research and the maths and you will get a clear amount of KW/H per 100km.

Then look at the cost of the electricity and compare it to petrol.

U might have to factor in the fact that a battery only gives out 80% of the power needed to charge it.

Andrew M

Cool, someone else who sees a bigger picture than the unit of energy per tonne burnt side of things.
So batteries only give you back 80%???
Thats a figure I never knew, But I never assumed you got all the energy back.

Thats yet another element that proves my theory further and goes a long way to elevating the 20% of the bad stuff figure

http://BMW schuss

Ok here we go Tesla roadster

Battery 53kw/h
Range 393km

13.5kw/h per 100km

13.5kw/h x $0.12 = $1.62 per 100km

If u factor in charging capacity it will be closer to $2

Now if we compare a car of similar performance your looking at 15L/100km @ $1.20
$18

Even comparing to a prius at 4L/100km = $4.8

Andrew M

Spam word Tesla…….

So whats one cost since you are into the dollars????

Secondly you are on a good deal with 12c per kw/h

And also when was the last time you checked the consumption of other performance cars???
they aint 15L/100k anymore
You can get respectable performance under 12L and at a purchase price that wont break the bank.

I know it still leaves the EV at a winner, but it brings the margin down

393k’s is a good range for an EV too.

Lets talk about comparible vehicles, something that can at least carry a family.
If you have to carry 5 people thats 3 roadsters on the road to every prius.

http://BMW schuss

Yeah it’s about 80% efficiency for batteries and then only 90% for power lines and so on. By the end of the track you need to produce twice the energy that you end up consuming.
This however is even worse with hydrogen and again worse with ICE

I could go and work out how many grams of carbon is produced by and electric car vs ICE, but that’s best left for the experts.
http://BMW schuss

15L/100km is an extreme, but so it the prius on the other side of the scale. Then again so is the Tesla(light weight)
With current battery technology i would say Electric cars are NOT viable by a long shot. But if the silicon based ones come online and mass produced that might change things in 5-10years

My personal understanding is that a battery powered car uses less energy, regardless of the many drawbacks it may have.
MJ

In Tasmania they get their electricity from Hydropower, in WA its gas, in France its nuclear. In Victoria its filthy Coal.