Chinese automakers face zero growth in 2009
January 14, 2009 by Matt Brogan
The worsening economic climate in China is proving daily that the auto market there is likely to see 2009 end with no growth at all.
In 2007 sales across China were up 22 percent on the previous year, but last year slowed to only seven percent last year. Market research firms such as CSM Worldwide and Global Insight predict the growth rate in 2009 will be lucky to reach five percent – if at all.
2009 is, in China at least, seen as a particularly tough year for car manufacturers with the economic growth rate in the third quarter of 2008 down nine percent (the rate for the fourth quarter is not yet available) and an added increase in unemployment.
In fact in some urban centres unemployment has hit almost 10 percent which coupled with China’s take on cars as a ‘non-essential item’ makes the situation looks bleak at best.
According to official statistics, the average disposable income of urban residents in China was about 14,000 yuan ($2,050) in 2007. Their cousins in the countryside only earned about one-third of that. By contrast, even an ordinary compact car like a Ford Focus in China now still costs above 100,000 yuan ($14,600) meaning an urban resident has to save for seven years to buy a car.
While recent policy measures by the government will help the domestic auto market to achieve sustainable growth in the long term (these measures include cancelling road maintenance fees and offering tax incentives for people driving small cars) short term gains will be limited.
According to Sinotrust, a Beijing-based market research company, domestic auto sales growth in the first quarter of 2008 reached 21.8 percent, but it quickly dropped to 15.4 percent in the second quarter and then fell 1.9 percent in the third quarter.
Despite decades of economic prosperity, China still heavily relies on exports for growth. With the world deep in recession, it will take quite a while for the Chinese economy to regain growth momentum and until the domestic economy starts recovering, it is hard to persuade Chinese consumers to buy cars, big or small.
Print it: 
Couldn’t really care about the Chinese cars, but why is there a Citroen double chevron in the bottom right hand side of the article picture. Are Citroen Chinese now, or still French?
I can see copies of existing logos from:
BMW
Startrek Federation AND Klingon
Toyota
Citroen
AFL like…(4th row no.1)
Ben the French are proud,
Im sure they would rather set fire to the Citroen factory then sell out to the Chinese…
..Yes its a copy.
Elist, you should change your name to racist!
Bin Liner,
You’ve got to be joking.
Elitist expressing an opinion that one culture vigorously protects their intellectul property, rather than have it transfer elsewhere, is not a racist comment.
The French have even banned the word “e-mail”, because it’s not French enough.
Chinese carmakers are currently defending lawsuits from several Western Car Makers, for blatant ripoffs of their designs.
That particular country is well known for it’s disregard of the intellectual property of others outside it’s boarders.
If they had any class, they’d want to develop uniquely Chinese vehicles, & beat the Euros, etc at their own game.
A (Bad) copy isn’t the way for your goods to generate respect in the market place.
I notice you didn’t address that several of those badges do seem to be incredibly familiar, & the 2nd photo could well be a Scion B (Toyota).
Nor did you comment that the 3rd photo is a 1:1 full size photo of that particular car.
ooops!
:-)
JasonP, you do know that car makers have been selling their old dies and tooling to Chinese companies for a fair while now? Not all cars made in China that look like international cars are rip offs.
Sure, there are some that do copy designs and European car makers have attempted to sue and lost. The court decided they were sufficiently different.
The Chinese are just copping the same flak that the Japanese and Koreans copped 30 and 15 years ago. Give them a few more years and the Chinese will start eating into the market all over the world.
SC, I’m not sure that “European car makers have attempted to sue and lost” is entirely accurate. The way I recall it they were actually successful in haveinf the cars inquestion banned from sale in Europe, but were unable to stop them being built and sold in China, because Chinese law doesn’t recognise international design registrations. & patents.
Yes Brett same as Japan.
They are thieves anyway u paint it.
When will China realise that they have too many people.
When people out number insects in a country u have a problem and no doubt an environmental nightmare for the rest of us that don’t breed like rodents.
Actually I think u will find the Koreans actually pay for technology rather than copy.
A lot of shoddy stuff coming out of China as government standards are non existant especially for export.
Check your food products to make sure they aren’t made in China as many are.They still use chemicals banned 30 or more years ago in the West.
With regards to the chinese population, it has been reported that the reduction in the potential size of the population, since the introduction of the “one child” policy is greater than the entire USA population. Puts it into some sort of perspective.
Anti-spam word “Integra”; a delicious piece of Japlish!
Yes SC, I’m aware of Western Companies selling their old tech & production lines to the Chinese.
I think the fridge industry did it when they were compelled to switch away from CFCs in the West.
No such scruples in China obviously.
I do agree that the Chinese will eventually get there, but I’m a while away from buying a car made in China.
Remember last year when they crash tested a model planned for release in Europe, & it returned Zero Stars?
And that was after it was a substantial copy of (I believe) an old Vauxhall 4WD.
The Vauxhall didn’t originally get a Zero Star safety rating, so what, the Chinese copied it, & made it worse?????
At the moment I’d probably be 2 generations of cars away from buying Korean, which would mean that I’m at least 5 or more generations away from buying Chinese. (Eg 2 more new model generations before buying say a Kia Rio, etc)
Lest Bin Liner considers me a racist, let me divulge I lived with my Chinese Girlfriend for over 5 years.
Funny thing, everytime I slept with her, I felt like sleeping with her again an hour later………..
:-)
I agree on the Brilliance Bs6 that scored 0 in crash tests.
They went away after that and redesigned the crash structure in 6 months and scored 3 stars.
So why didnt they make it at least basically crashworthy in the first place?
Should have taken 12 months & made it a 4 or 5 star rating………
There is soooooooooooo much I could say about the Chinese copy cats having dealt with them for 8 years in manufacturing.
China is and has been coming down on coping products for several years now and factories are less likely to copy design registered products as there is no point in making products to send overseas if they are only going to get crushed in some countries like the UK if they are deemed knock offs. I have had fist hand experiences with this!
Regarding cars ,the times I have been there I have been told the knock offs like the Shuanghuan CEO {a X5 look alike} China can make them but not sell them elsewhere in the world. Then again I dont tend to believe anything the Chinese tell me anymore!
BMW did take legal action against them Bret this is the result…. quote 19.12.08
“The Bavarian automaker took Shuanghuan to court in Munich this past summer and won their case, and when Martin Motors (the distributor of Shuanghuan Automobiles in Italy and central Europe) started selling the CEO in early 2007, BMW again took legal action, this time in the Italian judicial system.
Last week, the Germans met their defeat when the Italian courts rejected their claims. To date, Martin Motors has sold about 200 copies of the CEO and expects to sell about 1200 this year in their European markets. “We are convinced the CEO wasn’t a clone of the X5. We are happy to see our view supported by a court ruling,” said an obviously pleased spokesperson from Martin Motors. We have to wonder how quickly the Italians would change their tune if Shuanghuan began to knock-off the Lamborghini Gallardo LP560-4. ”
Giorgetto Giugiaro once said
“It took Japan 40 years to become a great automotive nation. It took South Korea 20 years. I think it will take China as little as 10 to 15 years.”
All of these countries used other manufactures as the benchmark of what they were designing!
They simply learn from the past from other mistakes of what doesnt work and so loosing them less money and continue making what does work for them even though the rest of us see them as bland………its all about making the dollar for them nothing to do with passion I can think of one big Jap manufacturer thats gold at doing that!
JasonP quote “Funny thing, everytime I slept with her, I felt like sleeping with her again an hour later………
mmmmmmmm must have been the same problem my ex husband had when he said he was off to visit the factory……..funny name for a girl I thought ;) I did say ex didnt I ! Chick in the pic looks awfully like her too ,maybe a tad too old for him though!
BM (.) (.) (hope that’s accurate by the way; perfectly symmetrical :-) )
Don’t you know that “Factory Fresh” is always better than Second Hand?
Haven’t you ever wanted to trade up to the newer model, even if it only has a different grill? :-)
I guess the chick in the pick would look like nearly every….. nah, I won’t say it!
Sam R,
You could have bought Stuart a FIAT Toplino.
In Urban populations or what is referred to as China “a” this way well be the case but only represents about 10% of total population.
The remainer in rural/hinterland represent china “b” and these people are still breeding to work their plots and support parents in old age etc. China prosperity is an illusion at great human cost to china “b” who are the majority and hence cheap goods flooding world markets.
Several western companies have pulled out of China due to the business conditions beyond their control.
Lack of standards and regulation and crruption at all levels will see substandard goods come from China for quite some time.
Chinese government will continue acquistion of private companies via their Government owned companies on world stock markets to corner resources for themselves.
Mark my words they cannot be trusted and by virtue of their population and networks will eventually dominate world economy.
Prefer something made in India if I must.
Wait till the Indians hit their straps.Very clever people that up until now have been over whelmed as a nation by circumstance.
Indians play by the same rules and the Chinese don’t. Lot to do with one being Communist and the other Democratic.
Martin motors not indicative of Italians sense of fair play as implied but just a opportunistic importer with no scupples.
Too right Realcars………
JasonP quote “BM (.)(.) (hope that’s accurate by the way; perfectly symmetrical :-) )
hahaha ,Australain made and there real, China knock off version
hahahaha ………….
mmmmmmmmm that didnt work either………. I tried using the side arrows with a dot in the middle and got nothing when I posted it .Never seen that happen on the site before ?Anyway you get the idea …………;)
BM (.)(.)
Yeah, they look real.
You can spot quality from a mile away. I’d assume they’re like an M3? (High performance, & handle well?)
Glad they’re Australian Made. I really value local content.
The Chinese models would be smaller no doubt.
There’s probably a Dual Airbag joke in there somewhere too.
There is nothing wrong in copying cars. Making cars is like driving cars. U learn first, which is coping how the good drivers drive, so it is L-plate. Then if you are good, after a few years becomes silver, then eventually gold. The back of i-30 looks like benz, so what? The same thing applies to China just like Korean and Japan. Australia is not even L-plate yet, coz Holden is quite happy to lick G.M ’s ass which is going to maybe bankrupt anyway. It is time for Aussie to WAKE THE BLOODY UP!
Binladen,
It’s like seeing someone with a fake Rolex or a fake Gucci Purse.
If you know your stuff, you can almost always tell it’s a cheap ripoff, & that the product is nowhere near the quality of the real thing.
It would be like someone blogging in your name…..you wouldn’t want the opinions of an illinformed nob to be expressed as if they were your own, would you?
Having cheap ripoffs posing as the real thing devalues the original design.
The way an Extreme Terrorist devalues certain religious beliefs, Binladen.
Cupid Stunt, I saw her first!
Quote [JasonP] Binladen.. If you know your stuff, you can almost always tell it’s a cheap ripoff, & that the product is nowhere near the quality of the real thing.
It would be like someone blogging in your name…..you wouldn’t want the opinions of an illinformed nob to be expressed as if they were your own, would you?
Jason – given that 99.99% of Bin Ladens comments appear to be those of an ill-informed nob…. it would be hard to tell if it was him or not – should someone else use his name.
Everyone has their own individual writing style; that is the way they structure their sentences the words they use the grammar/spelling etc.. so even if there are those on here who use aliases or try to impersonate regular bloggers its often easy to tell that its not the real person or as you say – you can tell it’s a cheap ripoff,
Quote [JasonP]: Having cheap ripoffs posing as the real thing devalues the original design.
The way an Extreme Terrorist devalues certain religious beliefs,
Or the way an Extreme fan of a particular [Japanese] make of car often embarases the regular fans.
Or the way Hoons showing off in their “fully schick” [VK] Commodores gives the other Holden drivers a bad name
As always it’s a case of the minority ruining it for the majority
Wheelnut,
On the money as always.
:-)
Or the way Falcon Wagon/Ute drivers think they have a modern rear suspension.
I know an Amish Guy who said, “that’s even too basic for us!!!!!”
New ad slogan : Toyota; You Don’t Have To… but for some unknown reason, You Probably Will”.
Irony; Toyota fans blogging on a car enthusiasts site.
:-)