US car sales show positive trend
July 2, 2009 by David Twomey
In the first positive sign that an economic turn around may be on the horizon for the global automotive market, US sales have shown their smallest decline in nine months.
American vehicle sales fell 27.7 per cent in June, marking the smallest drop for the industry in nine months, but dashing hopes that demand would rise to a 2009 high.
Ford Motor Company’s 10.7 per cent slide, its smallest in 16 months, wasn’t enough to keep the seasonally adjusted sales rate from slipping to 9.5 million, below analysts’ projections of 10 million, and well below the 13.1 million from June 2008.
“Still, the industry is recovering, every single month has been better” said Patrick Archambault, an analyst with Goldman Sachs, according to US industry website Autonews.
“We’re in a bit of a holding pattern here for one month, but there’s a lot of market drivers that are turning positive that should really help sustain an improvement once you get into the second half of the year.”
Continuing it trend Ford fared better than other major carmakers.
It now stands at number two in US sales through the first half of the year after ceding the spot to Toyota in 2007.
Ford’s market share grew to 16.1 per cent, ahead of Toyota’s 16.0 per cent, but lagging behind General Motors’ 19.7 per cent.
GM’s June sales were down 33.4 per cent, and Chrysler Group LLC, now under the control of Italy’s Fiat, tumbled 41.9 per cent, as both companies slashed deliveries to fleets. Toyota slid 31.9 per cent for its second-smallest drop of the year.
Industry sales fell to 860,101, after rising above 900,000 in May for the first time this year.
The second quarter was a “breakthrough” for Ford, Jim Farley, group vice president for marketing and communications, said in a conference call. While sales didn’t increase, consideration and brand image did, he said.
June marked the 24th year-over-year monthly decline in 25 months, but analysts still foresee some recovery in the next six months.
“On a six-month lag basis, consumer confidence has been a strong predictor, so it still points to a back-half recovery,” Mr Archambault, of Goldman Sachs, said.
Analysts forecasting a second-half improvement in sales also say the cash-for-guzzlers legislation President Barack Obama signed last week will improve car-buying interest and perhaps generate sales.
The measure offers vouchers of as much as US$4500 to consumers who scrap gas-guzzling vehicles and buy new ones with better fuel economy.
Predictions of the law’s effectiveness in boosting sales have been mixed, but, again, Mr Archambault said it should bump sales rates starting in August.
He said: “If all it does is add another 100,000 units to August, that’s going to add another 1.2 million units to the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR).”
Print it: 
Yeah read this already today .Was good to see Ford doing well again and surprising to see the Camaro outsold the Mustang first time in 15 years.Some good news for GM finally!
*****PRIMO!*****
That’s VERY good news, perhaps the worst is now over.
Well we can at least all hope!
Time for FIAT to show us what they have planned for BigC, badge-engineering a US built AlfaRomeo as a Dodge [heard this rumour] i hope does NOT proceed!
Cheers
F-0
I a bit confused. Ford sales still slid down by 10.7%. To me its like falling down a cliff with jagged rocks below. They’re still falling but not as much before. The emphasis on “still falling”. Fiat are on a winner (or not) with Chrysler sales dropped by a further 41.9%. I suppose if Ford are comparing their 10% drop to Chrysler then sure its positive.
On a local note though, the Aust gov’s 30% tax rebate would have helped sales here. Has anyone got any figures on Australian car sales to see how well this incentive worked?
To put it another way Sam, if the industry national average sales total is down 30% and you are only down 10% then you are fairing far better than most.
I personally don’t see a recovery to the level of the last 5 yers, more a plateauing at the current levels. This will give the manufacturers the opportunity to adjust production down to a level where they produce slightly less per month than they sell. No more acres of unsold stock eating up cash.
The fourth picture shows exactly why GM is dying. Not a single car under 2.tonnes and not a single car without a V8.
Sam,
techniclly they arent still sliding.
The 10% drop they are talking about is on their boom time figures.
Its not a 10% drop on last month.
They are probably back to normal flow in real terms of it.
The boom time 2008 figure was pretty much over inflated figures. At the time, their sales could have been regarded as 110% above a reasonable sustainable amount.
They then dropped 30%ish which put them 20% below the sustainable amount. They have now picked up that 20% to put them on a realistic forecast.
Thanks Frontman and Andrew M, Its a little clearer but the %’s lose me a bit.
What’s with the voting thing though? Can’t I give an opinion on here or ask for help without incurring negative votes? 6 more and it gets taken off! For what reason???
Lets just hope they learn something from all this and start building decent cars, I see the next Falcon is in the pics.
No worries Sam,
Yes I agree that is a flaw in the voting system.
Im guessing people gave you a few negatives because they didnt agree with your take on the situation, or felt you didnt quite interperet the results properly.
I wouldnt take it personally
Thanks again Andrew. The positive votes have calmed me down.
I can breath easier now and the hands have stopped shaking :-)
Don’t forget that US sales in June 2008 were bad, fuel prices etc. These numbers are down on what was already a bad month a year ago.
US sales June 2009 .86 million units
US sales june 2008 1.19 million units
US sales June 2007 1.46 million units
Thats a sales drop of nearly 600,000 units from July 2007.
Not even a hint of a recovery here IMO. Long way to go.
As an aside obiously these are total units, maker to maker results will differ.