Internal combustion engines to remain dominant until 2050: report | CarAdvice

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Internal combustion engines to remain dominant until 2050: report

By Tim Beissmann
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The National Petroleum Council (NPC) in the US says high costs and technology limitations will ensure internal combustion engines remain the dominant power source for cars until at least the middle of the century.

Despite innovations in electric and hydrogen fuel cell propulsion technologies, a report from the NPC says the lower cost of internal combustion engines and their suitability with a diverse set of vehicle platforms will see conventional petrol and diesel engines, hybrids, plug-ins and natural gas engines continue to lead the market until 2050.

The NPC believes ongoing technology advancements such as vehicle lightweighting, improved aerodynamics and drivetrain electrification could see the fuel economy of internal combustion engined vehicles improve 60-90 per cent over the next four decades, satisfying the US Government’s push to halve greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector’s 2005 levels by 2050.

The report says it is too early at this stage to identify the ‘fuel of the future’, and as a result recommends a broad portfolio of technology options should be pursued and supported, with the government remaining “technology neutral while market dynamics drive commercialisation”.

Achieving the 50 per cent emissions reduction by 2050 is made considerably more challenging, however, by the projection that vehicle miles travelled (VMT) will increase by 60-80 per cent in the US by 2050, a problem the study fails to find a solution to.


 

  • Lachy

    Would anyone expect the National Petroleum Council to predict anything different? Of course they are going to be talking up the prospects of those they represent… that’s their job!

    • Sumpguard

         True, and they have been sniffing the high octane stuff as they have totally disregarded advancement in technology. The past 20 years have seen massive improvement in battery tech. So why will the next 40 years not see an acceleration?

          Like you said why expect them to say any different. I have little doubt combustion engines will still be here but NO-ONE can say with certainty that they will be the dominant source!!

  • Bais

    If the batteries in my iPhone cannot handle the task of powering it up.. Then I really wouldn’t want a battery powered car..

  • gt86.com.au

    What will all the petrol heads be called in the future?
    Battery Heads ;)

    • Before we post, who are you?

      No, they’ll be bright sparks.

  • tsport100

    Bosch were saying something similar back in 2009 (they said ICEs would dominate until 2030) Only a year later Bosch announced they would be investing $500 Million annually in the development of all-electric powertrains and associated electronics. Seems they woke up to the inevitable!

  • Amlohac

    They arent saying petrol engines will die off totally, they are saying they will remain dominant

  • pixxxels

    Please, tell me more about the clearly unbiased opinions of the National Petroleum Council!

    In all seriousness I hope they’re right, and I think we will continue to see the huge advances in combustion engine (particularly diesel) efficiency that we’ve seen over the last decade for some time to come. But I do question their objectiveness. 

  • Jonno

    Current ICE utilization and technology are dependent on the price at fuel bowser. Anything over $2.50/liter for petrol and $3.00/liter for diesel will cause a gradual shift to alternative transport means and technology.
    In major cities in Asia ie. Tokyo, HK & Singapore where private transportation are so cost prohibitive – people get around by public transport.  The land planning & development there are extremely geared toward high rise living near transport hubs such as Mass Rapid Transit Stations and bus ports. In big Asian cities – the number of car owning households are no more than 15-20% for city dwellers. In Japan, you can’t buy a car without a confirmed parking lot. In HK, carpark lots are sold individually apart from the apartments.  In S’pore, you have to pay for monthly parking at public housing where 85% of people lived & you need an “entitlement” via auction to buy a car.
    Australia is still very car-centric in terms of land planning and instead of maximum utilization of land – we see tremendous urban sprawl moving away from the CBD area. It’s extremely inefficient and incredibly wasteful when people have to commute to work by car. There is still a anti-high rise development mindset in many councils in Australia. Also, the present State Governments are constrained in their financial capacity for infrastructural works eg. in Victoria, NSW & Queensland.
    The only intermediate technologies to supercede ICE are the Hybrid format and Bio-Diesel and EVs for short-to-middle ranges. These are not without their compromises – Plug-In Hybrids & EVs rely on power generation grid which may require fossil fuel while Bio-diesel requires agricultural resources shift from food to fuel.
    At the end, the momentum for ICE are dependent on people’s mindset whether they would ditch their attachment to their cars/SUVs, ditch the thought of having a “block of land” and plumb for high-rise living and simply live according to their measured means which would ultimately mean a “poorer’ lifestyle and a lower standard of living compared to the ones our fathers had during their time.

    • Sumpguard

        I recently saw a program where they were creating biodiesel from algae grown in ponds and by stuffing nutrients into the water they were accelerating the growth of the algae. This is believed to be the holy grail of biofuel as it doesn’t require pasture to produce.

          Many of the countries you named where parking is a privelage don’t have 1000 km’s between their cities and had the sense to invest in VFT many eons ago. The money Rudd and Howard squandered over the past 15 years would have built it 3 times over from Darwin to Adelaide via Cairns ,Brisbane, Sydney ,Albury-Wodonga and Melbourne!

         Not much point comparing us to Singapore or Hong Kong .Both island would fit easily into Victoria. Our distances are huge by comparison and this is why there has been no rush to embrace a highrise agenda. Melbourne has perhaps gone some way however.

      • Guest

        The point that was being made was land & transport planning for urban areas – making high rise living a priority to prevent commuter traffic gridlock & for efficient public transportation to substitute for private cars & building more roadways to contribute to traffic congestion. Already, Melbourne & Sydney are suffering from traffic congestion from urban sprawl – commuters have no viable alternatives other than using cars. Links between major cities on the Eastern Seaboard can be served by a high speed train system (Brisbane-Sydney-Melbourne) & can transport both commuters & cargo.

    • Doggydogg

      Lets see, 

      Japan over 120 million people in a tiny mountainous IslandAustralia just over 20 million people in a massive continent

      !!

      If Japan had the same land space as us, then they would do exactly same thing we do.. 

      • Garrywhopper

        They tried for our land space, battle of Midway kept em in check

        • Jasser

          Not really. The attack on Australia was a diversion to cause us to station more troops here rather than on the front lines in Asia.

    • Jasser

      Really like your knowledgeable comment.

      Australia spends a lot to build and maintain the infrastructure linking the scattered inhabited places.

      This was probably ok in the past as Australia was more or less a closed system.

      In today’s globalised world, the tax burden levied on companies and individuals to build and maintain that infrastructure adds to our uncompetitiveness.

  • JamesB

    This prediction is nonsense unless there’s still oil left underneath in the first place.

  • Dave S

    It sounds very believable. The heading does not say petrol engines, only ICE. Petrol, Diesel, Ethanol (E85) or LPG are all ICE. I think Ethanol, and LPG will have to become more popular in the coming years.