Driverless Robot Cars Are Coming | CarAdvice

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Driverless Robot Cars Are Coming

By John Cadogan |
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Technology will replace drivers – sooner than you think. The rise of the robot car is inevitable. It’ll happen because most people who buy cars really don’t enjoy driving; they’d rather be doing something else. Technology will facilitate it. In the foreseeable future, driving will lose its appeal and gradually do the dinosaur bit the way vinyl records did a few decades ago. Cars will still be with us; driving will be obsolete. Despite the nostalgia wrapped around driving, which you and I probably share, this trend towards driverlessness is a done deal – it’s as certain as iPods having killed CDs.

Your new chauffer will probably be less malevolent and better looking than Arnie’s intense alter-ego … but just as cunning

All that remains is a timetable. Depending on your age, you might never own a fully robotic or ‘autonomous’ vehicle, but your kids probably will.

Right now – today – Nevada is being heavied to introduce legislation that will legalise driverless vehicles. Techno-giant, Google, is putting the bite on the state’s regulators to become the testbed for robotic vehicles, which, it claims, have already racked up more than 220,000 autonomous kilometres – albeit with a living, breathing person in the driver’s seat (essentially doing nothing, beyond sitting there to satisfy a latent legislative requirement).

Driver soon to become optional extra – in Nevada

In September last year we reported on the un-manned robotic Audi TT that climbed the infamous 15,000-foot summit of Pikes Peak in Colorado. Although it did so not quite as speedily as a rally champion, at least it didn’t crash … like the human-piloted helicopter commissioned to film the event did, tragically and somewhat ironically injuring four.

This robotic Audi TT climbed Pikes Peak in 2010
Robot 1; humans nil – ironically, human pilot crashes trying to film robotic car’s epic hillclimb

Every day, hundreds of technically cognizant propeller-heads go to work in un-signposted automotive skunkworks and build better mousetraps designed to make human drivers obsolete. I visited one such place outside Munich late last year – the private BMW test track in Aschheim. Here, a young engineer let go the controls and feigned a heart attack at 100km/h. The X5 ‘mule’ – bristling with laser scanners, cameras and radar, took over. Computers? You bet. The cargo space was completely filled with racks containing the automotive equivalent of NORAD-lite. Lots of flashing diodes – the kind of stuff only Jack Bauer could hope to disarm.

And it’s not just Audi – when it’s not designing frozen hurricanes, BMW is heavily invested in driverless tech

The X5 watched the road, identified the traffic, waited for a gap, indicated right (Euro-orientation of the slow lane), changed lanes, stabilised, and then repeated the process. Eventually it moved to, and stopped safely in, the breakdown lane. Then it activated the hazard lights and executed a computer program designed to send a priority SMS message to emergency services responders – complete with the GPS location.

Clever stuff. And, although not quite in production yet, this technology was far enough down the track, to let me in – joined at the umbilical to a prime-time TV crew. It begs the rather obvious question: How totally cool is the stuff they’re working on now, which they won’t yet oxygenate with publicity?

Tomorrow’s chauffer will probably look like this

Flash-forward to vehicles you can buy now. Cutting-edge adaptive cruise control uses radar to follow slower traffic at a safe distance and will even brake right down to a stop if the vehicle in front does likewise. And, unlike humans, adaptive cruise never gets waylaid by a nice set of legs at the roadside, or the imperative to send a critical tweet, like, right now, in traffic.

Infrared cameras and computer algorithms in high-end cars today not only detect pedestrians (and, potentially, kangaroos, etc.) at night – but they also plot their likely trajectories and are capable of intervening if a collision course seems likely.

There are of course, milder consumer benefits to friendlier version of Skynet taking over, at least on the road. The rise of the machines might mean drink-driving will be a non-issue. With three schooners of ‘super’ on board, why not let the robot chauffer you home? You’ll be able to blog to your heart’s content (or work) all the way to and from the office, or just watch your favourite I Love Lucy re-runs.

Robot cars could remove some traditional road safety hurdles…

Sending the car to collect someone (kids from school; dad from the airport, etc.) previously a luxury afforded only the uber-wealthy, might soon be something everyone does. Perhaps this will render cabs – or at least cab drivers – obsolete. You might send the car on its own to the dealership for a scheduled service – and the dealership might send it back. Perhaps you’ll buy your car online and it will deliver itself.

If you can’t find a park, perhaps in the future you will be able to press the ‘round the block’ button and have the vehicle enter an autonomous holding pattern while you duck in for those last-minute wedding anniversary flowers to ensure your latent absent-mindedness doesn’t get you stabbed 40 or 50 times, quietly, in the night… And even if that’s not an issue, it might well be cheaper to have the car doing autonomous laps in lieu of paying Sydney/Melbourne/Brisbane exhorbitant parking rates. (There will probably be a toll for this, however…)

Can’t find a park? Send the robot ’round the block

Would engaging autopilot take the gloss off driving? Probably – at least to older farts like me. I’d be happy to let the robot do the work in heavy traffic, which, let’s face it, isn’t really driving. I’d still prefer to throw the car at a twisty backroad, however. But to middle-aged Gen Zs of the future, a steering wheel might be as relevant to modern life as CDs are to Gen Ys today. Will autonomous cars in the future come with an ‘autopilot off’ function (plus a steering wheel and pedals) or will these nostalgic implements one day be merely the stuff of museum exhibits, with contemporary conveyances featuring four-to-eight passenger’s seats and high-speed internet access?

Even the US Department of Defense mad scientist division, DARPA, is banking on robot cars

Will hackers construct viruses that cause robot cars literally to crash? Will the aftermarket industry make unauthorised firmware available – big can of worms there, potentially, on the liability front.

Too sad: robot cars might see this bloke and his mates go the way of the dinosaurs

Maybe we can expect some regulatory resistance to robot cars Down Under. What will all the state treasuries do for a quid when the immense revenue streams from drivers’ traffic infringements start to run dry? And, finally, who’s copping the lawsuit if the robot makes a blue and catalyses a 20-car pile-up on a motorway near you in peak hour?


 
  • Shak

    I just hope that when or if these autonomous cars are released to market, that they have some sort of driver override, such as tapping the brakes. Because i for one do not trust a computer with my life, or for that matter, anyone else’s on the road. As much as computers are brilliant at everything they do, i still want people to take responsibility on the road. Driving is a privilege, not some right we have to frivolously take advantage of.

    • Gibbo

      Well put. What happens when the computer driving the car freezes?
      While Im all for a car that will drive me home from a solid session at the pub, in every other situation Id rather do the driving my self.

      • http://www.caradvice.com.au/ John Cadogan

        Shak & Gibbo,

        Thanks for taking the time to comment. Thankfully you don’t have to choose right now. But let me get this straight, Gibbo – you’re okay with the computer hypothetically putting you at risk if you’re too drunk to drive? And when you say ‘in every other situation’ does that include 45 minutes of stop-start gridlock when you’d be more productive doing something else?

        When you say ‘…the computer driving the car freezes’, it’s safe to assume the system would accommodate that with redundancy. A modern fighter jet like a Raptor or a Joint Strike Fighter is dynamically unstable, allowing it to be incredibly manoeuverable, but it’s essentially un-flyable without a computer to react to the instability. The computer doesn’t crash and let the plane fall out of the sky. That risk is designed out.

        Sincerely,

        John Cadogan

        • Robert

          Computers have been around for a long time, if i click too much or try to open too much up….Blue Screen Of Death, even after how long they’ve been around although that might have something to do with my computer costing $1200 not $150 million like a raptor but how much do yuu expect these cars to cost? half a million (A tiny fraction of how much a raptor costs).

    • Dave L

      Our PCs always do as they’re instructed don’t they? (cough, cough). Tend to agree with Shak – I’d also be reluctant to trust a vehicle that is completely automated. Especially if they start to crash as often as a Windows system.

      • Sumpguard

        Yeah but how cool to be driven to work by the terminator? Sorry I couldn’t resist.

        John raises an interesting point regarding planes and infact many passenger jets are flown the same way now so it is a valid point. Few people hesitate to jump on an A380 and fly around the world and they yet take off ,land and fly with massive computer aid at 10 times the speed and with 500 people aboard.

        The other reality with cars is that we aren’t doing a particularly good job of driving them ourselves. Anti Hooning chip anyone?

        • Robert

          Although it’s computer assisted there is still someone behing the wheel (if they call it that) of a plane. the only time they can take a break is when they’re in the air with no obstacles. Sounds like you presume a pilot is a very easy job and they do nothing (I am aware of the pilotless jet they’ve tried out by nasa or the military)

          • Sumpguard

            I presume no such thing. Take the computers away thoug hand the pilots will need more than piloting skills. They’ll need crash landing experience because the A380 cannot fly without those computers!

      • Joy

        Good point Dave L, but I just wonder how many people were skittish when it came to the first passenger flights when flying first became main stream? I bet some of their thoughts were, “wow, I don’t know, a huge hunk of metal miles up in the sky, I don’t know if I trust that.” Now it’s common place to fly and not too many people are afaid of it.Get my drift lol?

  • MatthewM

    I can’t wait for these to come to market. Like the article says, driving in heavy traffic isn’t really driving anyway, and most people would rather be on their computer or watching entertainment than the brake lights of the car in front.

    Once enough cars are sold with these technologies, you will find that traffic congestion eases as the automated cars avoid the human errors that often cause traffic snarls in the first place. Things such as erratic braking, delayed acceleration, rubbernecking at accidents etc.

    Another thing to consider is if individuals really need to own a car that can drive itself while you are not using it. Do you really need a car to be sitting in a car park for 8 hours while you are in the office, when it could be used to drive around other people? Car pools/fleets will become more common than individual ownership if you can just book in a travel plan on your smartphone and have a car arrive when you need it.

    However, there will be a huge backlash the first time a computer-driven car crashes, or fails to avoid an accident. I hope it doesn’t scuttle the idea completely when it happens, as I believe it will greatly reduce road related deaths over the long term.

    Any accidents that happen with these cars should be treated like an air crash investigation with a complete root-cause analysis and any outcomes/changes needed applied to the entire fleet.

    • http://www.caradvice.com.au/ John Cadogan

      Matthew,

      Agreed. Thanks for commenting. Technology in transport (cars, planes, etc) always makes for greater reliability. However, when there is a disaster it tends to be monumental. (Think: Challenger, Columbia, The Kursk, etc.)

      One of the major problems on our roads is a small group of scumbags who drive unlicensed, pissed, dangerously fast, unregistered, etc., often all at once. Although computer systems occasionally fail, I don’t believe they fail as often as this group of human scumbags often do.

      Personally I can’t wait until society’s detritus is engineered off the road. A computer will ALWAYS do a better job than them. (And it’s worth remembering they don’t always kill or injure only themselves – plenty of innocents are conscripted into their errors.)

      Agreed also that the first robot car snafu and lawsuit will be Old Testament-style monumental.

      Sincerely,

      John Cadogan

  • Andrew of Melbourne

    This is a car hoon drivers are waiting for. They can make the car go fast as they want and not have to worry about their own human driving ability. I dont want to see such technology in Chinese cars and especially not in taxis. There’s some already stupid taxi drivers as it is this will only make things alot worse.

  • JEKYL & HYDE

    here’s an old golf question that best explains this situation…

    you’ve got a 10 foot putt to make to literally save your life.do you a.get tiger woods(or phil,martin,lee,take your pick) to try and make it or b.you try and make it yourself.

    i’m going with me anyday,because if tiger misses,i’m still dead.if i miss,its my problem…

    • Fiz

      Bearing in mind I can’t hit the ball I’m going with Tiger every time.

      :)

    • Robert

      If i broke my arm in a car crash, i’d rather blame the automated driver, maybe even get some compensation than to blame me and look like i can’t drive

  • Andrew

    Cars driven by robots that obey every traffic and parking rule would be an absolute disaster for our councils and governments… No, robot cars are not coming any time soon – not until authorities figure out a way of leeching off them the way they leech off us.

    • Robert

      They’ll program them to speed and run red lights everynow and then. kinda like the win ratio on a pokie machine

  • http://www.robotics.org Brian Huse

    Robotic cars could be game changers in every way described here by John.

    Considering the mass markets for autos it is a very real chance that one day most people will have their first interaction with a robot from behind the driver’s wheel.

    Now, there is a tendancy for us to dub any smart technology as a robot. Quite often, perception becomes reality so if the marketing folks at Audi decide to hang their message on the word robot we will just accept their car as a robot.

  • RoFlmaTiC

    A car maker would be committing financial suicide by manufacturing and selling automatic cars and charging anything less than a small fortune.

    All it takes is 1 accident causing serious injury or death and you have a massive lawsuit against you. The cost of these claims vs their likelihood would have to be built into the sale price.

    Toyota/floor mat issues are a pretty obvious example of this potential problem.

  • Jacob

    Isnt the future Personal Rapid Transit? like they have in Heathrow T5